Former President Trump continues to hold a commanding lead over his GOP rivals in the 2024 race, according to a new poll. With 64% of primary voters saying they would vote for Trump today, he remains far ahead of his closest competitor, Ron DeSantis, who is trailing at 18%. This data comes from a poll conducted by CBS News Director Fin Gomez and CBS News Executive Director of Elections and Surveys, Anthony.
The Steadiness of Trump’s Lead
Anthony notes that Trump’s numbers have remained steady, much like they were in August. However, there has been some movement among the second-tier candidates. Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy have swapped places, although they remain in the single digits. One interesting finding from the poll is that only a third of voters say they are closely following this race. This raises the question of how other candidates can break through when attention is limited.
The Trump Campaign’s Perspective
According to the Trump campaign, they are paying close attention to these polls. They view them as a reflection of their core issues: crime, immigration, and war. They believe that despite the legal hurdles Trump is facing, his focus on these key topics has resonated with primary voters. Additionally, recent polls have shown Trump outperforming President Biden in battleground states, further bolstering their confidence.
The Impact of Candidates Dropping Out
When considering the impact of candidates dropping out, Anthony emphasizes that Trump already has a strong base of support. Over a quarter of voters say they are only considering him, giving him a significant advantage. While some voters may shift to other candidates if they drop out, many will likely choose Trump as their second choice. Therefore, the consolidation of support against a second-tier candidate may ultimately benefit Trump.
Joe Biden’s Campaign Response
The Biden campaign’s response to these polls is to urge caution. They argue that it is still a year away from the 2024 election and that people have not been fully engaged in the primary battle. They believe that with more time and messaging, the trajectory could change. They also point to the upcoming elections in Ohio and Virginia as better indicators of public sentiment.
What to Watch for in the Upcoming Elections
Both Fin and Anthony highlight the abortion issue as a key factor to watch in the upcoming elections. The pro-abortion rights side has been gaining traction in red states where referendums on abortion have taken place. Therefore, the outcome of the abortion-related votes in Ohio, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Virginia will provide insight into the potency of this issue across the country. Democrats hope that the galvanizing effect of this issue will lead to gains in these elections.
While polls a year out from an election are not always predictive of the final outcome, they do offer valuable insights into the current political landscape. The Trump campaign remains confident in their strong position, while the Biden campaign believes there is still time to sway public opinion. Ultimately, only time will tell how these dynamics will shape the 2024 race.
| Poll Findings | Voters’ Sentiment |
|---|---|
| Financial Outlook (2024 Election) | Voters believe Trump is better off. |
| Preventing U.S. Involvement in War (2024 Election) | Trump is seen as the peacekeeper. |
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